THE odds factor comes into play with Weekend Hussler and Samantha Miss. Should they be so short in the betting for their respective engagements, and what is the best way to get a result out of them?
Weekend Hussler, at $1.55 with TAB Fixed Odds for Caulfield's Underwood Stakes, looks a better gamble due to his ability to take up a perfect position, while Samantha Miss, $1.65 in the Tea Rose Stakes at Rosehill Gardens, isn't as appealing on the score of where she will be in the run.
Samantha Miss gets back in the field, thus is more susceptible to the vagaries of tempo - plus she takes on two major contenders, Stripper and Portillo, which already hold decisions over her.
The way Samantha Miss accounted for her opposition at Randwick on September 9 was highly impressive.
But it was on a heavy track, often flattering, and Rosehill today promises to be a good track indeed.
Portillo was a 1.8-length third in the Furious Stakes, but her navigator, Kerrin McEvoy, rode Randwick that day like he was in the Bermuda Triangle and his compass had gone haywire.
"Portillo should have finished much closer to Samantha Miss at Randwick, no further than a half-length," Ray Murrihy, the Racing NSW chief steward, commented.
With McEvoy suspended, Rod Quinn takes over on Portillo and from the four gate should give the filly a sweet passage closer to the speed than Samantha Miss and Stripper, a class act. Giving a long start could be dangerous.
Resuming from a spell, Stripper went down narrowly to Duporth in the Golden Rose at Rosehill, a strong form race, on August 30 and she is comfortable on the circuit.
At her only Rosehill start, Samantha Miss was three-quarters of a length fourth to Portillo in the Magic Night on dead Rosehill ground in April. Some reckon Portillo could be better with the sting out of the surface.
VERDICT: My heart is all Samantha Miss but my head says don't chase her in the red. Try a straight-out trifecta: Samantha Miss 1, Portillo 2, Stripper 3.
EXACTA SCIENCE: "They can all be beaten," dispensed Pat Hyland on Weekend Hussler. Hyland, a former jockey and now trainer of Zarita, is well qualified on the subject. "Vain got beaten and I don't know how that happened," he commented.
Hyland rode Vain, certainly one of our greatest sprinters. He gives his charge, Zarita, a chance against Weekend Hussler today because of the Underwood distance, 1800m. The hot favourite hasn't been beyond 1600m whereas the mare is much better suited by it than the metric mile, over which Weekend Hussler beat her two lengths in the Makybe Diva at Flemington on September 6.
Light Fantastic will improve on his Makybe Diva failure and Maldivian should get an easier run in the leading division than last week, although Indio Glorioso is a frontrunner.
VERDICT: Weekend Hussler on top but the bet is an exacta: Weekend Hussler and Light Fantastic. Zarita? A mare hasn't won this race since Tristarc in 1985.
WELL RELATED: Beware of sharp improvement from Related, trained by Bart Cummings, in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Related went down by more than eight lengths to Aichi down the straight six at Flemington on September 6. Cummings reported Related wasn't allowed to trial over the course, experience he regards as most necessary, and the three-year-old will be much better today. Still, today's 1400m sprint is bristling with promising types. Lord Tavistock, the early favourite, scored well over the Flemington 1400m. on September 6 but wasn't as impressive as Whobegotyou, second to Sugar Babe in the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield on August 30. Time Thief, with the benefit of a cross-over nose band for the first time, will have supporters as will Von Costa De Hero, the Golden Slipper runner-up, who should benefit from the application of blinkers.
VERDICT: Take the long odds about Related .
TIME TO SHINE: Giant stallion Zagreb, with more potential than his rivals in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield, must do well to maintain any Caulfield Cup credibility.
Zagreb, with only eight starts to his name, is entitled to improve on his last-start second, after being on the pace, to Conquering over the Caulfield 1700m on August 30. On face value, a class four-year-old should have done better - but the 2000m journey today gives his staying power the opportunity to kick in.
Possibly he will be better ridden back, which was the case when a three-quarters-of-a-length second to Zarita in the South Australian Derby, 2500m, in April. Light Vision, Gallopin and Zavite will be fancied while Dolphin Jo won the corresponding race under 55kg last year.
VERDICT: Zagreb .
TRUE EMPEROR: Trainer Paul Murray is convinced Predatory Pricer, favourite for the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill, is a stayer, even though he's a half-brother to the outstanding sprinter Takeover Target.
In fact, Murray will set him for the AJC Australian Derby, 2400m, in the autumn. Thus today's 1800m shouldn't prove too far. Maybe Predatory Pricer was fortunate to beat Caymans and Dreamscape over the Rosehill 1400m metres last Saturday but they are very talented.
Queries about him are a rise in weight, 3.5kg, and distance. Consider Emperor Bonaparte, which finished ahead of Predatory Pricer over 1300m at Rosehill before his 10th in the Golden Rose behind Duporth on August 30 when four wide without cover. Being by Montjeu, Emperor Bonaparte is getting into his comfort zone with the journey. Stalingrad, a beaten favourite last start when "running on fear" according to jockey Hugh Bowman, is expected to be in a better frame of mind due to blinkers being dropped from his gear.
VERDICT: Emperor Bonaparte to reign this time.
Email a friend
Favourites
Del.icio.us
Facebook
Digg
StumbleUpon
MySpace
Reddit
Newsvine
LinkedIn
Kwoff
Twitter