It's almost a year since Tabcorp launched its ambitious plan to buy Tatts and create an $11 billion gaming powerhouse. And it's more than 10 years since it last attempted and was thwarted by the competition regulator to do the same deal.
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But the outcome still hangs in the balance.
A lot has changed over the decade. A digital revolution has greatly altered the way we gamble, online competitors have mushroomed and old totaliser agency business has steadily declined in market share.
But what looked like a pretty good bet on this deal receiving a regulatory tick from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has turned into a legal nightmare.
So the future of this deal - which was designed to rescue the fortunes of Tabcorp and enhance its prospects for growth - are now up in the air, thanks to a Federal Court decision.
Basically, the ACCC and the Australian Competition Tribunal are at odds on how they view the detrimental effects of this takeover.
Thus it is the competition regulators that are engaged in hostilities.
Tabcorp and Tatts boards have been in agreement since day one (last year) - that it is positive for both sets of shareholders and in that sense it is not a hostile takeover.
In the early days of the bid the ACCC issued what looked to be a qualified approval, albeit with some conditions.
Clearly those conditions were a bigger problem for Tabcorp than they initially appeared.
Not long after, Tabcorp took the unusual step of gaming the regulators. It decided to bypass the ACCC and take its case to the body that traditionally looks after ACCC appeals - the Australian Competition Tribunal.
For a while this appeared to be a clever play thanks to the fact that the competition tribunal took a far more generous interpretation of the competition issues and gave the deal the green light with only one condition and one that Tabcorp could easily live with.
This decision saw off the one competing bid for Tatts, and on the face of it the rest should have sailed through the formal processes.
But ACCC chairman Rod Sims was not about to give up. Like a dog with a bone and with an unusual ally, the James Packer controlled CrownBet, joined forces to appeal the deal.
The ACCC applied for the Federal Court to undertake a "judicial review" of the approval, alleging the competition tribunal made "reviewable errors" in its assessment of the detriments the merger would cause.
CrownBet also launched an application, saying the decision to approve the proposal had been "irrational", and claiming it was "bad for punters and competition".
The Federal Court has now referred the matter back to the Australian Competition Tribunal.
The reasons for the court's decision will not be known until next week, so investors won't get a sense of how the next leg of the process will play out.
"The ACCC is pleased that the Full Federal Court has set aside the decision, however the reasons for the decision are not yet public," Sims said.
"The ACCC's application for review was based on three grounds. The first was the Tribunal's reasoning that it could only find that the proposed acquisition was likely to result in a detriment to be considered in the net benefit test if it concluded that there would be a substantial lessening of competition."
Thus the future of this gaming marriage is now in a state of flux.
Just how investors will respond to this latest news is guesswork given Tabcorp's shares were in a trading halt on Wednesday.
Adding another layer of problems to this deal is the fact that Tabcorp's share price has moved down significantly since the deal was announced. Given that Tatts shareholders are being paid in Tabcorp shares, the offer price is far less attractive.
And a Tatts shareholder vote in favour will be needed to get this deal across the line. Some large shareholders have announced their support but not enough for the vote to be counted as a shoo-in.
For the deal to be approved, more than 50 per cent of Tatts shareholders must be present and voting at the scheme meeting on October 18, with at least 75 per cent of votes cast in favour.
The Tatts chairman remains in favour of the deal in the belief that it creates long-term value for shareholders and Tabcorp still holds the view that synergies will be substantial if the two players merge.
But the deal is looking increasingly precarious as the obstacles mount and the Tabcorp share price falls.
